A recent workshop organised by the US-based Council on Foreign Relations discussed China's likely economic trajectory. Attended by almost 35 academic economists, Wall Street professionals and geopolitical strategists, they outlined three scenarios.Of those attending, only 31% felt that annual growth would be between 4% to 6%, dependent on leaders successfully implementing reforms; 61% foresaw a “lost decade” of 1% to 3% growth; the rest thought a so-called hard-landing, or contraction, was most likely. The first was the most optimistic forecast and noticeable is that none of them appeared to consider the possibility that the Chinese government could deliver on its promise of “medium to fast” growth, meaning 6.5% or higher.