CHINA-OBOR: KENYA


In its Talking Points for May 29, 2017, the China-Africa Project said President Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya on his visit to Beijing for the One Belt One Road (OBOR) Forum, secured Sh362 billion from China for extension of the Standard Gauge Railway (SGR) from Naivasha to Kisumu. Uhuru is also reported to have requested for another Sh16 billion for the construction of the Western Bypass. With the cash, credit for the SGR alone will rise to Sh1 trillion while total public debt will hit Sh4 trillion, burdening the Kenyans. Already, for every shilling Kenya pays as debt, 23 cents is swallowed up by China.While benefits flowing from the many roads being constructed by the Chinese seem definite, this is debatable with the SGR. Its viability has come into sharp focus with the World Bank questioning the financial value of the project in a 2013 report. In its paper entitled 'The Economics of Rail Gauge in the East Africa Community', the World Bank said “Investment in standard gauge appears only to be justified if the new infrastructure could attract additional freight in the order of 20 to 55 million tonnes per year.” The Economist, also raised concerns with the project saying “Repaying the loans taken out to build the line will require hefty fees or huge volumes of traffic. But truckers—who now handle more than 95 per cent of the freight moved from Mombasa port—will compete fiercely on price, and shipping companies may look for other ports if levies rise.”

On May 25, 2017, the United Nations raised the red flag over the economic, social, financial and economic risks of China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) project. UNESCAP said “External account indicators for some of these economies are relatively weak. In Kazakhstan, the current account deficit amounted to six per cent of GDP in 2016 while external debt stood at over 80 per cent of GDP in 2015.”  In Sri Lanka, Mattala Rajapaska International Airport is one of the white elephant projects constructed using Chinese money. Built at a cost of $209 million (Sh21 billion) with features such as a 12,000 square-metre terminal building, 12 check-in counters and a runway long enough to handle the largest commercial jets, it only handles two flights a day. Saddled with debt, the country is now considering converting some of the loans it owes China into equity. Prof Samuel Nyandemo of the University of Nairobi’s School of Economics refers to China’s projects as debt trap diplomacy. “Extending loans for infrastructure projects is a good thing. But look at the projects being funded. Most of them are meant to open markets for Chinese goods in strategically-located countries and increase their access to natural resources. If there is one thing China is truly good at, it is using its economic assets to advance its geostrategic interests, which has left countries snared in a debt trap that makes them vulnerable to Chinese influence.” By the end of last year, Kenya owed China Sh313 billion, or 57 per cent of the total amount owed to other countries, after a three-year surge when China overtook Japan as the largest creditor in 2015. During that year alone, Chinese debt tripled from Sh80 billion to Sh252 billion. In the last four years, Kenya has accumulated Sh276 billion debt from China. Back in 2008, Kenya got its first taste of Chinese largesse when China agreed to lend the coalition government $84 million to construct the Eastern and Northern bypasses. Within two years, another $156 million was received to fund the Southern bypass and another Sh46 billion for Thika road. The Government has accumulated, since it came into power five years ago, slightly over Sh2 trillion in debt. Critics argue that unlike Western countries which transferred much of their technology to the Chinese when they poured into the Asian country, China has not done the same in Africa. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development Secretary General Mukhisa Kituyi says it is time for Africa to smell the coffee and start looking for alternative ways to finance its development budget.







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