Writing on the East Asia Forum (February 26) Cui Lei, Research Fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, a think tank affiliated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, argued that Mainland China is in no position to take Taiwan by force. He put forward two reasons. One reason is that domestic political risks are high if the use of force is not successful. Victory is not yet a foregone conclusion — having prepared for conflict with the mainland for decades, Taiwan has toughened its ability to defend itself. Taiwan’s will is strong. Polls show that 80 per cent of Taiwanese people are willing to defend the island by force. Secondly, he said that in the context of the 20th Party Congress in 2022 in particular, Xi Jinping needs a stable domestic political environment to ensure the extension of his term as General Secretary of the CCP. Brinkmanship towards an incursion may risk domestic stability, provoke public discontent and stir backlash that could scuttle his leadership. But, he added, there are still other options for reunification. Some in China suggest that the possibility of peaceful reunification has not yet been completely lost, and that Taiwan can be corralled into reunification through the so-called ‘Beiping model’. This model is based on 1949 CCP negotiations with the Kuomintang garrison to take over Beiping, now Beijing, without bloodshed, and it could be a cost-effective option to take the outlying islands of Taiwan.
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