Cai Xia, former senior Professor at Beijing’s Central Party School and sharp critic of Chinese President Xi Jinping, in a 28 page paper for Stanford University's Hoover Institute and captioned an “Insider’s Perspective,” has said that four decades of U.S. bridge-building has merely entrenched a Chinese leadership inherently hostile to the U.S. And under President Xi Jinping, China no longer finds engagement useful. She said “Wishful thinking about ‘engagement’ must be replaced by hardheaded defensive measures to protect the United States from the CCP’s aggression—while bringing offensive pressures to bear on it, as the Chinese Communist Party is much more fragile than Americans assume.” According to Cai Xia, "since the 1970s, the two political parties in the United States and the US government have always had unrealistic good wishes for the Chinese communist regime, eagerly hoping that the People’s Republic of China (PRC) under the CCP’s rule would become more liberal, even democratic, and a “responsible” power in the world. However, this US approach was a fundamental misunderstanding of the CCP’s real nature and long-term strategic goals. All along the CCP hid its real goals and intentions, so as to gain various benefits from the United States". She added that "the engagement policy over the past half century have been multifaceted. On the one hand, engagement has helped the Chinese people to get rid of poverty and isolation and enter the international community, and it has also allowed civil society to emerge and gradually develop in China. On the other hand, the engagement policy has also hastened the rapid rise of China under the CCP’s neo-totalitarian rule. The CCP is determined to reframe the existing international order and norms and lead the world in the opposite direction of liberal democracy. Since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012, he has continued the diplomatic strategy toward the US established by Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping—namely, to take advantage of the engagement policy to gain time to achieve the CCP’s goals. But, with China’s enhanced strength now, Xi Jinping has wrongly judged that the international configuration is “the East is rising and the West is declining,” and he has become more aggressive and outspoken about his strategic intention to displace the United States. As a result, in recent years, troubles and conflicts in China-US relations have continually increased, and the CCP has increasingly become the greatest challenge and greatest threat to postwar international relations, to the liberal system of freedom and democracy, and to the security of the United States".  

 

Speaking of military modernisation and preparedness, she said "With the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, the only country that could claim to have a world-class military was the United States. After Xi Jinping came to power, he emphasized efforts to deepen the reform of national defense and improve the actual combat level of military training. His repeated phrases “achieve the goal of building a strong and world-class military” and “prepare to fight and win wars” are obviously aimed at the United States. China’s expenditure on national defense has been steadily increasing. In 2021, the official budget reached 1.35 trillion yuan ($209.16 billion), an increase of 6.8 percent over 2020. This is the second-largest military budget in the world. However, according to estimates by the respected Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China’s actual military expenditure in 2019 reached $240 billion US—38 percent higher than Beijing’sofficial figure. China’s vigorous expansion of Xi’s military reform also runs in tandem with Xi’s vaunted Belt and Road Initiative. A few years ago, I was invited to participate in the selection of “best curriculum” for military, ideological, and political education, and I attended the lecture competitions for a week. Quite a number of the lectures were about how to use the military to “keep the Belt and Road on course” (保驾护航). Moreover, Chinese authorities have deliberately heightened tensions in the South China Sea. In 2011, when Vice President Joe Biden visited China, Xi personally promised that China would not carry out military expansion in the South China Sea, and he publicly reaffirmed that pledge in the White House Rose Garden standing next to President Obama in 2016. But subsequent actions have once again proven that the CCP never keeps its promises. China has accelerated the construction of artificial islands in the South ChinaSea and has begun to deploy weapons and troops there. It will likely soon establish a naval base". 

 

In a striking observation, Cai Xia says "China-US relations have finally moved toward a Cold War confrontation. The sad ending of the engagement policy is an inevitable outcome. Although it is difficult for the engagement policy to continue, no totalitarian Chinese ruler can eliminate the enormous influence that the US continues to have on the CCP and the Chinese people. The economic and cultural exchanges between the people of China and the US have been growing continuously. As American capital, companies, products, and culture have entered China; as many Chinese travel abroad and see their children, relatives, and friends go abroad to study and work; and with the increasing number of intermarriages among Chinese and Americans, people have seen the real situation in the United States with their own eyes, and the false propaganda of China’s totalitarian regime has been exposed. Yet, under its totalitarian rule, the CCP publicly incites anti-American sentiments, while many people secretly transfer their assets, their children, and their families to the United States. They are criticized as “two-faced people” and ridiculed by Chinese netizens, with the epithet “anti-Americanism is the work, while migrating to the US is the life.” In fact, however, many CCP members and officials, and a considerable number of elites in Chinese society, especially the middle class, accept and approve of the American democratic system and freedom as universal values". She added that "China-US relations will inevitably move toward a standoff and/or confrontation (cold war or hot war is the external manifestation of confrontation)". She also said "In fact, it is the CCP that has unilaterally ruined the engagement policy, because it believes engagement has served its purpose and is no longer useful". She asserted that "now that Xi Jinping believes that he is firmly in control and that China is strong enough to challenge the US, the PRC no longer has to bide its time and is beginning to behave aggressively. This can be clearly seen from the CCP’s military expansion in the South China Sea and the growing military belligerence toward Taiwan in recent months". Cai Xia said that after the pandemic, "Xi said that China now has the strength to “look at the world on an equal footing.” In the eyes of CCP leaders, “the East is rising and the West is declining.” Their judgment is that there are opportunities embedded in crisis, and the crisis can turn to opportunities to realize the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” She forecast that "that China-US relations will inevitably move toward standoff and confrontation". She said Xi Jinping's policy of “one doctrine, one leader, one party, and one nation (Han-centric nation)” "will cause the US to face an adversary that does not follow common sense or rules, that does not have integrity, and that is unpredictable. This will further increase the risks for the US and the world".

 

As a Party official since 1968, Cai Xia said "the CCP is not monolithic" and that "In my more than thirty years of contact with middle- and high-level CCP officials, I can say that at least 60–70 per cent of the CCP’s high-level officials understand the trend of the progress of the modern world. They understand that only a democratic constitutional government can ensure long-term stability in China and protect human rights, personal dignity, and personal safety for oneself. Members with vision in the CCP recognize the goodwill of the United States". She warned the United States to "be fully prepared for the possible sudden disintegration of the CCP. The CCP appears to be powerful on the outside, but this refined neo-totalitarian Stalinist dictatorship is actually quite fragile inside. The CCP has the ambition of a hungry dragon but inside it is a paper tiger. There are many factors that may lead to unexpected changes in the situation and even possibly the collapse of the regime. They include the unsustainable economic model and high levels of debt; the inherent and insurmountable contradiction between exaggerated ideological propaganda and social reality; the incompatible dual-track ownership system between the market and the state; the increasing social disparity between rich and poor; continuing corruption; and the fierce infighting for succession to supreme power. Xi Jinping’s overly suspicious and narrow-minded personality has led to continuous purges inside the party, which have brought extreme dissatisfaction among the middle- and high-level officials of the CCP. Everyone feels unsafe". 

In conclusion, Cai Xia urged the U.S. to understand that the "CCP’s international relations, especially with the US, is to strengthen its internal control and prevent the collapse of the regime". Also that "the nature of the relationship between China and the US is actually one of adversaries and rivals rather than competitors" and that "both countries are large and possess considerable strength. Neither one can swallow the other, and a “hot war” between the two would be calamitous for the world".