A report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released late last month said
China’s shift towards joint operations in space, cyberspace, and nuclear technology point to a “proactive
defence” strategy that could include a pre-emptive strike. The report said, “Changes to China’s postures and
technologies indicate that its concept and practice of ‘active defence’ may be converging with more forwardleaning and even pre-emptive ‘proactive defence’.” It added that “One key potentially destabilising outcome
is that the US response to China’s shifts in posture and technologies could trigger an escalatory spiral of both
arms races and crises that cut across space, cyberspace and nuclear domains.” The report said China might
increasingly employ space, cyberspace and nuclear strategies that were more like those of the US and Russia,
which could undermine global security. It said China’s defences had been accelerated by President Xi
Jinping’s proactive leadership style, China’s economic growth, and military and political pressure from the
US. The South China Morning Post (February 6) said this more aggressive strategy could destabilise regional
security as China gains strength but its similarities with the approaches taken by the United States and Russia
could help the three powers better understand each other, and eventually encourage conflict prevention and
crisis management talks. It cited Chinese military experts who said the People’s Liberation Army was still
aiming to deter rather than take a pre-emptive strike. Hongkong-based former PLA officer Song Zhongping
said “China’s actions have been for ‘defensive purposes’, meaning that the PLA will only fight back once
someone else fires the first shot”. “The military should not only be able to strike back, but also fully paralyse
the enemy’s ability to cause further harm. “In Chinese, the concepts of ‘active defence’ and ‘proactive
defence’ are the same, with the latter highlighting more combat-ready preparation.” Zhou Chenming, a
Researcher from the Yuan Wang Military Science and Technology Institute in Beijing, said China would not
change its policy of “not firing the first shot” in any arena. “China’s missiles, including the DF-21 carrierkiller and other weapons, were all designed for deterring and denying foreign military intervention in case
of a Taiwan contingency, which will only happen if Taipei formally declares independence.” “The PLA will
not take pre-emptive strikes in peacetime.”
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